OPEC: Resilience of UAE's non-oil economy supports growth; strengthens country's position as global trade hub

Vienna [Austria], September 12: The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2025 highlighted that non-oil activities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continued to demonstrate strong resilience, with overall output growth remaining steady. The report noted that the UAE's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded in August to 53.3, after easing in July to 52.9, its lowest level in four years, as regional uncertainty and intensifying competition weighed on new orders.
The report further underlined that the country's macroeconomic resilience was also reflected in Fitch Ratings' affirmation of the UAE's sovereign credit rating at "AA-" with a stable outlook, underscoring the strength of sovereign assets and bolstering investor confidence.
In addition, the strong performance of non-oil trade reinforced diversification efforts, with foreign trade expanding by 24% in the first half of 2025, far outpacing global trade growth of 1.8%. This, the report emphasised, strengthens the UAE's role as a global trade hub and underpins the dynamism of non-oil sectors throughout the year.
Tourism was also highlighted as a key driver of growth, with Dubai welcoming nearly 10 million visitors during the first six months of the year. This performance is in line with the Emirate's "D33" economic agenda, which aims to position Dubai as a leading global destination, contributing to fiscal revenues and enhancing overall macroeconomic stability.
On the global oil market, the report stated that the forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 remains at about 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), y-o-y, unchanged from last month's assessment. Within the regions, oil demand in the OECD is projected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is expected to increase by about 1.2 mb/d.
For 2026, global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.4 mb/d, also unchanged from the previous month's assessment. Of this, OECD demand is projected to expand by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y, while non-OECD demand is forecast to increase by around 1.2 mb/d. The report added that transportation fuels - including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel - are set to remain the main drivers of demand growth in both years, followed closely by LPG and naphtha used in the petrochemical sector.
Source: Emirates News Agency